Death of El Mencho Lead to a New Era of Uncertainty for CJNG

Death of El Mencho Lead to a New Era of Uncertainty for CJNG

The announcement of the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho) has brought a new and uncertain era of change to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of the most dominant criminal organisations in Mexico.

El Mencho's leadership propelled the CJNG into one of the largest drug-trafficking organisations in Mexico, rapidly gaining control of major trafficking corridors andBranching into other criminal activities such as extortion, theft of fuel, and large-scale distribution of illegal drugs to the international market. His sudden absence has led to questions that experts claim will not be resolved quickly: Who now holds power within the CJNG?

Death of El Mencho Lead to a New Era of Uncertainty for CJNG

A Cartel Designed for Endurance
The CJNG Has Not Collapsed Immediately

While most criminal groups are heavily dependent on a single leader to direct them, the CJNG is unique in that it is structured around a decentralized model with many regional commanders who run their own areas and have substantial independence from each other. Therefore, if a significant disruption in leadership occurs, CJNG will still operate as a cartel.

This is one reason why the CJNG has not experienced an immediate loss of operations from the disruption of their leader. Nevertheless, there are also significant risks associated with decentralized groups: if someone takes the place of a leader who has lost his authority, that person will likely have to compete with others to become the new leader of the CJNG.

Rapid transitions of leadership, such as what the CJNG is facing, typically only result in instabilities. They are often accompanied by a period of instability and are common within large, powerful criminal networks.

Disagreement exists regarding the actual impact of the CJNG’s impending transition, with some experts suggesting the CJNG had been preparing for this transition for several years.

A Possible Successor Not Available

This discussion involves one possible successor, El Mencho's son, who is currently in the U.S. prison system serving an extended prison sentence. Given this fact, this particular successor is not considered capable of leading the cartel in any realistic sense due to his incarceration.

With this possibility off-limits, succession discussions will now focus on established and higher-ranking members already involved with the cartel's financial and operational structure.

A Senior Member With Ties to SoCal
Emerging from Cross-Border Criminal Activity Issues

One potential successor to El Mencho is Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez. Valencia Gonzalez is a high-ranking member of the CJNG and reportedly has ties to southern California. His history has made him of interest to security experts following cross-border criminal activity.

Valencia Gonzalez has been instrumental in overseeing all of the cartel's internal coordination, finance, and regional logistics from behind the scenes. His experience within both the U.S. and Mexico could provide him with important advantages, especially since law enforcement is applying more pressure along the border.

Currently, his name is one of a few circulating in analyst circles, not necessarily the official successor, but someone to keep an eye on.

How to Share Power, Not Seize Power
A Temporary Power Structure at the Top.

Experts believe, instead of having one person as the new permanent leader, the CJNG will likely be operating on a shared leadership basis for the short term. So rather than one individual Gen. Gonzalez making all the decisions, for example, there will be multiple senior leaders sharing the load as the organization recalibrates itself.

People like Valencia Gonzalez would likely assist in maintaining continuity through the transition and would reduce any immediate interruptions to the trafficking operation. However, history gives a cautionary tale about the troubles that can arise when criminal organizations have a transition in leadership. Leadership transitions have historically produced rivalries, miscalculations, and often resulted in violent internal disputes. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the CJNG will be able to break from that historical trend.

Why it Matters Beyond Mexico

The future direction of the cartel will have an impact that reaches well beyond its base of operation. Any leadership transition could change trafficking routes, increase the amount of violence, and affect law enforcement operations throughout North America.

In this case, authorities are actively looking at people who have ties to the United States view their cross-border experience as an operational advantage as well as a possible liability.

For those living in between these two groups, the changes brought by power struggles are rarely abstract but rather translate into instability for them.

Conclusion: A Cartel at the Crossroads

The reported death of El Mencho marks an important chapter in the history of organized crime in Mexico, but it does not mean that the CJNG is finished. The CJNG faces now an important crossroad. Leaders like Juan Carlos Valencia González demonstrate that there can be changes in leadership that occur behind the scenes, which can help reshape internal dynamics while maintaining influence. Therefore, time will tell if it will matter who was the last leader of the CJNG or what will happen next. Until that time comes, we will continue to watch and wait as this situation continues to develop.